Research program

The work of ArcticWATCH is delineated in five scientific work packages (WP) described hereafter, as well as one coordination work package.

WP1: Characteristics and climatological probability of rapid sea ice loss events

WP1 has two objectives: (1) preparing the data that will be needed in all other WPs, and (2) delivering an updated inventory of all RILEs and their characteristics in CMIP6.

WP2: Predictability, precursors, and drivers of rapid ice loss events – past and future

WP2 will systematically analyze a hierarchy of climate model simulations and observations to unveil the mechanisms of sub-decadal sea ice trends and to quantify the respective roles played by hypothesized drivers on RILEs.

WP3: Initialized dynamical prediction of rapid ice loss events

WP3 aims at developing a polar-focused seasonal-to-interannual prediction system based on the EC-Earth global climate model. Unlike the work proposed in WP1 and WP2, predictions done in WP3 will take into account the initial information on the oceanic, atmospheric and sea ice state to predict internally generated climate fluctuations, and hence the timing of RILEs.

WP4: Probabilistic seasonal-to-interannual prediction with a method of analogs

WP4 aims to explore alternative approaches to sea ice prediction, taking advantage of emerging approaches from data sciences.

WP5: Impacts of rapid ice loss events

Once a rapid ice loss is occurring, and regardless of whether or not it was successfully predicted, it will leave long-lasting imprints on the atmosphere and ocean. WP5 will study the impacts of RILEs on the Arctic system, and in particular of the most extreme sea ice drops which can be viewed as low probability but potentially high risk events.